{"id":5215,"date":"2021-07-13T11:13:21","date_gmt":"2021-07-13T10:13:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.headlandconsultancy.com\/international\/?post_type=insight&p=5215"},"modified":"2023-01-18T18:07:59","modified_gmt":"2023-01-18T18:07:59","slug":"is-labours-fate-still-tied-to-brexit","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/www.headlandconsultancy.com\/international\/insight\/is-labours-fate-still-tied-to-brexit\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Labour\u2019s fate still tied to Brexit?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Conservatives are now more popular than Labour among working class voters\u2026 Because of Brexit?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Following the Batley & Spen by-election, Headland was visited by the UK\u2019s leading psephologist and BBC\u2019s go-to-expert Professor Curtice. Here\u2019s what we learnt.<\/p>\n

Brexit and by-elections <\/strong><\/p>\n

Despite Hartlepool and Batley & Spen both voting to leave the EU, and once considered \u2018Red Wall\u2019 seats, the two constituencies went different ways in the recent by-elections. While many were caught by surprise, they perhaps shouldn\u2019t have been \u2013 support for Brexit is an important indicator, but it isn\u2019t the only one when considering which way a constituency might vote.<\/p>\n

Hartlepool was a heavily Leave-voting constituency, at around 70%, that historically has been a Labour stronghold (the seat of Labour grandee Lord Mandelson), but switched to the Conservatives with a 16% swing in early May. Labour just managed to hold on to Batley & Spen \u2013 which voted Leave by just shy of 60% \u2013 in early July, albeit with a drastically reduced majority.<\/p>\n

So why didn\u2019t we see that same swing in Batley & Spen? One reason is that the seat has a more ethnically diverse population, which is more inclined to vote Labour, despite Brexit voting patterns. While the Conservatives took a sizeable chunk out of Labour\u2019s majority, it was not quite enough to turn the seat blue.<\/p>\n

Also, despite the apparent tide turning towards the Conservatives in \u2018Red Wall\u2019 seats, the change is vote share is not a neat comparison. In Hartlepool, Labour has seen a loss of almost 30% of its vote share since 1997, while in Batley & Spen it has been a less dramatic, and more gradual decline of support \u2013 and similar increase for the Conservatives leading to them meeting at around 35% of vote share each in 2021.<\/p>\n

Chesham & Amersham on the other hand voted to Remain in the referendum, and while this should have been enough to give the Conservatives pause in the run up to the by-election, there were other indicators that the Lib Dems might have a bigger chance than originally expected. Voting demographics in places like Chesham & Amersham have been changing for a while. They are becoming more ethnically and politically diverse as those who previously lived in cities move out to the suburbs. Chesham & Amersham won\u2019t be the last \u2013 Dominic Raab in Esher and Walton might want to keep one eye on his Lib Dem opponents.<\/p>\n

An existential crisis for Labour?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Not only have the Conservatives been able to claim they \u2018got Brexit done\u2019, securing the votes of a significant group of Leave voters who previously would have voted Labour, they\u2019re now implementing policies more traditionally aligned with Labour values, in particular seen throughout the pandemic with huge amounts of government spending.<\/p>\n

Labour needs to take a long hard look at its voter base and get used to the fact that it has changed. Labour might want to be the party of workers, something that is in the party\u2019s DNA and where it still has the lion\u2019s share of votes, but the nature of the Labour voter has changed. Changes to the labour market, including education and skills, have made the simple classifications of working class and middle class more complex, and therefore the characterisation of the traditional Labour voter outdated.<\/p>\n

The Conservatives have arguably understood this better than Labour, and have refocused governing on ensuring these voters feel listened to and empowered \u2013 through the Levelling Up agenda \u2013 in an effort to make these recently gained seats \u2018safe\u2019.<\/p>\n

The Lib Dems also have an opportunity to capitalise. Their policies do not need to be measured on whether they are practical for governing, as that option is still outside the realms of possibility. They can throw all their efforts into being an unashamedly pro-EU party, representing Remain-backing voters who feel alienated by the Conservative or Labour, and create a new and perhaps permanent voter base.<\/p>\n

What will Starmer do in Scotland? <\/strong><\/p>\n

The 2021 Holyrood vote saw minimal changes in voting patterns, with no party seeing its share of votes in list or constituency seats move by more than 1.5%.<\/p>\n

However, it was the country\u2019s biggest voter turnout ever of 63.5%, against typical turnout of roughly 50%, and while we saw tactical voting across close seats deprive the SNP of an overall majority, we might find the SNP in the role of kingmaker at the next General Election.<\/p>\n

How? Well, while it is highly unlikely that Boris Johnson\u2019s government will allow an independence vote, the same can\u2019t be said for a Labour government, and especially so if it is a prerequisite for them being able to form a government. Yes, a Labour majority might be unlikely, but a Labour-SNP coalition might not. The SNP could quite feasibly offer Labour the support it needs to form a coalition government (or confidence and supply) in return for a second independence referendum.<\/p>\n

The question is, how much does Starmer want to be PM? Would he risk the union for it? History suggests the lure of the highest political office in the UK can be extremely difficult to resist.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Conservatives are now more popular than Labour among working class voters\u2026 Because of Brexit? Following the Batley & Spen by-election, Headland was visited by the UK\u2019s leading psephologist and BBC\u2019s go-to-expert Professor Curtice. Here\u2019s what we learnt. Brexit and by-elections Despite Hartlepool and Batley & Spen both voting to leave the EU, and once […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":3642,"menu_order":0,"template":"","services":[29],"sectors":[],"class_list":["post-5215","insight","type-insight","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","services-public-affairs-and-policy"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs Labour\u2019s fate still tied to Brexit? - Headland International<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is Labour\u2019s fate still tied to Brexit? - Headland International\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Conservatives are now more popular than Labour among working class voters\u2026 Because of Brexit? 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