In one week\u2019s time, Northern Ireland will vote in an election with potentially historic consequences.<\/p>\n
The Assembly elections on May 5th<\/sup> follow a period of seismic change in party loyalties. As a result, Northern Ireland could come out the other side of this election with a First Minister who is ideologically opposed to its very existence.<\/p>\n Unionism divided<\/strong><\/p>\n The change in political fortunes has been particularly marked on the unionist side. The Democratic Unionist Party\u2019s (DUP) polling numbers fell off a cliff last year after hard-line loyalist voters deserted the party for the Traditionalist Unionist Voice (TUV) over the Northern Ireland Protocol, the post-Brexit trading settlement which unionists complain creates a \u201cborder in the Irish Sea\u201d between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.<\/p>\n The loss of moderate voters has also contributed to the slide. Fed up with the party\u2019s internecine and chaotic leadership contests last year, as well as the party\u2019s withdrawal from the Northern Ireland Executive just prior to the election, middle class unionists have sought refuge with the non-sectarian and centrist Alliance, as well as the more moderate Ulster Unionist Party (UUP).<\/p>\n The result of these losses is stark. Despite recovering from their pre-Christmas nadir, just 20% of voters say they will give their first preference to the DUP, a far cry from the 28.1% who gave the DUP their vote in the last election in 2017.<\/p>\n That leaves Sinn F\u00e9in \u2013 attracting 27% of voters\u2019 first preferences \u2013 as the largest party according to the polls.<\/p>\n If that is translated into Assembly seats, it would make the party\u2019s leader Michelle O\u2019Neill Northern Ireland\u2019s First Minister, which would be the first time that the region would have been led by an Irish nationalist since the partition of Ireland in 1921. The moment would be no less historic for Sinn F\u00e9in, the party that once vowed to \u201cSmash Stormont\u201d at the height of the Troubles.<\/p>\n Permutation complications<\/strong><\/p>\n Sinn F\u00e9in are not a shoo-in for the top office. They themselves have retreated in the polls compared to their 2017 election high-water mark of 27.9%. And Northern Ireland\u2019s complicated electoral system, combined with a long and storied tradition of strategic voting, means that the DUP could yet eke out a come-from-behind victory.<\/p>\n But the winner of this election will be the party who loses the fewest seats, rather than gains the greatest. And that makes things tricky for the DUP.<\/p>\n Northern Ireland\u2019s elections use a form of proportional representation under which voters number their candidates in order of preference. During multiple rounds of vote-counting, once a candidate meets the threshold to be elected their subsequent votes are reassigned according to second preference, and so on until five members per constituency are in place.<\/p>\n That system means that voter behaviour matters. And the geographic spread of the DUP\u2019s vote \u2013 the party is defending seats in 17 of the region\u2019s 18 constituencies \u2013 means that it needs to keep a broad coalition of voters onside to come through unscathed. If the DUP lose transferred votes from either hard-line or moderate unionists who go for other parties, it could mean lost seats.<\/p>\n By comparison, it\u2019s not clear to see where Sinn F\u00e9in could be truly threatened across the 13 constituencies they are defending in. The party has been playing it extremely safe with its disciplined campaign, talking about the cost-of-living crisis and avoiding the question of Irish unity and the historic prospect of a Sinn F\u00e9in victory so as to avoid energising the unionist base.<\/p>\n