{"id":9175,"date":"2024-03-01T15:11:22","date_gmt":"2024-03-01T15:11:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.headlandconsultancy.com\/international\/?post_type=insight&#038;p=9175"},"modified":"2024-06-18T14:25:53","modified_gmt":"2024-06-18T14:25:53","slug":"peer-ing-into-the-future","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/www.headlandconsultancy.com\/international\/insight\/peer-ing-into-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Peer-ing into the future\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Headland hosts one of Britain\u2019s best pollsters, Lord Hayward&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Having a conversation with an eminent pollster on the polling day of a byelection is a dream for most political junkies. Here at Headland we were lucky enough to get the chance to do so when one of Britain\u2019s most prominent psephologists, Lord Hayward, joined us this week for a lunchtime fireside chat.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lord Hayward\u2019s polling prowess is famed in Westminster, a status made legendary by his correct \u2013 but at the time controversial \u2013 call that David Cameron would lose the Brexit referendum two weeks out from the vote. His knowledge of the nation\u2019s political geography, down to the council ward level, is unrivalled. Who better, then, to ask for predictions about the upcoming local elections?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Government will not be comforted to know that his view of their current political predicament is much more in line with prevailing opinion than it was in 2016. While Hayward reminded us that Labour are defending considerably more councils than the Tories, he said the Tories\u2019 2019 local election high water mark was so high that it would likely result in losses whatever the polls were doing. With the polls where they are, he said, the Conservatives can expect substantial losses.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s also watching a pre-election day number that will have significance for the Tories \u2013 the proportion of seats in which they field candidates. Historically, the party has stood almost everywhere, putting up candidates in 95-97% of seats. If that proportion drops to around 90% or lower, Hayward says, it would be an indication of apathy among the party\u2019s activists that will worry its strategists come the general.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s not to say that Labour will have an easy ride in May. Hayward was quick to point out that there is a considerable chunk of the electorate that effectively vote against the two main parties in local elections. Some people would vote Reform where they fielded candidates \u2013 but many votes for the Lib Dems and the Greens are effectively protest votes as well. In places where those parties are strong (the South West and commuting towns for the former; university towns for the latter) he expects them to pick up seats. This was, he said, part of a broader trend of increasing voter apathy and disillusionment, drawing comparisons with elections across Europe that have seen increased votes for protest parties, particularly of the Right.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He also flagged the increasing dissatisfaction in parts of Labour\u2019s base with the party\u2019s position on Gaza. With polls still open in Rochdale at the time of our conversation, this point could not have been timelier. Hayward predicted that if George Galloway won the chaotic byelection there it could be a harbinger of trouble in other Labour seats with large Muslim communities, particularly if Galloway puts serious effort into replicating his win elsewhere. Whether that prediction will come to pass now that Galloway is Rochdale\u2019s newest MP remains to be seen.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the local elections 8 weeks away, there is still a lot of road to run. Lord Hayward himself said that he wouldn\u2019t be producing his predictions for what the results might look like until about a week before the event. We\u2019ll certainly be keeping an eye out for his calculations, and what the results might mean for the upcoming general election.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Read more\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.headlandconsultancy.com\/international\/insights-and-news\/\">Insights &amp; News<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Headland hosts one of Britain\u2019s best pollsters, Lord Hayward&nbsp; Having a conversation with an eminent pollster on the polling day of a byelection is a dream for most political junkies. Here at Headland we were lucky enough to get the chance to do so when one of Britain\u2019s most prominent psephologists, Lord Hayward, joined us [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":9177,"menu_order":0,"template":"","services":[29],"sectors":[],"class_list":["post-9175","insight","type-insight","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","services-public-affairs-and-policy"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Peer-ing into the future\u00a0 - Headland International<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Having a conversation with an eminent pollster on the polling day of a byelection is a dream for most political junkies.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Peer-ing into the future\u00a0 - 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