COP30 in Belém was billed as the ‘COP of truth’ – a test of whether global cooperation on climate could endure in an era of political division and fiscal constraint. Ten years on from the Paris Agreement, and with the world on track to exceed 1.5°C, the summit opened with a sobering assessment: progress remains far too slow, with serious implications for economies and communities worldwide.
Although COP30 secured some meaningful gains, including on adaptation finance and rainforest protection, its consensus model once again ensured agreements moved at the pace of the least ambitious. Binding fossil-fuel language was blocked by major producers, framing a final text that ‘held the line’ rather than breaking new ground.
Yet Belém revealed something more important than the negotiated outcome. It showed that global climate cooperation does endure (just) and that the climate action agenda is beginning to evolve in response to a more dispersed, politically divided world. That shift offers an early view of the next phase of the transition, and the conditions that business and organisations will need to navigate.
1. A shift from ambition to implementation
President Lula placed implementation, not new declarations, at the centre of COP30. If Paris was about setting ambition, Belém was about the hard yards of delivery and adaptation. This mirrors a wider shift as governments and businesses move from debating what to do, toward grappling with how to do it. Though less headline-grabbing, this will be essential to bending the curve of global warming and accelerating the transition. Following Brazil’s lead, future COP presidencies will need to double down on this approach, with a laser-like focus on the highest impact interventions and clear mechanisms for holding countries to account on delivery.
2. Embracing cross-sector action
Through its action agenda and “global mutirão” concept of collective mobilisation, COP30 put cross-sector action at the heart of its strategy. In the end, logistical and cost pressures in Belém limited CEO and civil-society attendance, but Brazil’s intent matters because it gives business and non-state actors a clear opportunity to step forward through 2026 and beyond. Future COPs should harness this, integrating and empowering these players more deliberately, including by re-engaging CEOs.
3. Harnessing coalitions of the willing
Cover decisions dominate headlines but they remain the floor, not the ceiling, of global ambition. President Lula committed to working with a voluntary coalition of over 80 nations to develop a fossil-fuel phase-down roadmap in the year ahead. The signal is important – showing that appetite still exists to push beyond the lowest common denominator and that the impact of COP extends well beyond the two weeks of negotiations. These plurilateral alliances will be vital in helping to shift markets, create forward momentum outside the consensus-bound process, and counter the narrative that climate cooperation is collapsing.
4. Cities and regions are emerging as climate powerhouses
COP30 became the first summit to create a formal platform for sub-national leaders through its Local Leaders Forum in Rio. With cities responsible for around 70% of global emissions, and often on the frontline of climate impacts, this was long-overdue. More than 100 cities set out practical plans to cut emissions and strengthen resilience. In contrast to a more fractured picture in many countries’ national politics, their city leaders are becoming some of the most credible and ambitious voices in climate action, driving place-based change that affects millions. This is the clearest sign yet that climate leadership is dispersing across blocs, markets and local jurisdictions. Future COPs will need make the most of this new landscape, placing local leaders alongside national governments at the centre of the process.
What does this mean for COP and organisations navigating the transition?
COP’s flaws are well known, but its ability to convene governments, investors and civil society, and command a global spotlight, remains essential. As Ed Miliband has argued, if COP didn’t exist, we would need to invent something very much like it.
Belém marked the start of a necessary evolution. Brazil set a direction that future hosts can build on, and the test for Turkey and Australia at COP31 will be to accelerate that shift: pressing countries to deliver on past promises, empowering coalitions and sub-national leaders with real ambition, and bringing senior figures back into the process.
Brazil’s approach also carries lessons for any organisation working to advance climate action while keeping the confidence of investors, stakeholders and the public. Progress will depend less on headline commitments and more on the practical work of shaping the frameworks and policy contexts they operate within, navigating a wider and more diverse set of expectations, and building relationships that unlock momentum when progress stalls. Resilience will come from preparing for a transition that is dispersed, uneven and influenced by many centres of power. That is the environment Belém pointed to. Organisations that understand this – and organise themselves accordingly – will be well placed to navigate what comes next as physical risks continue to accelerate.
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